Manchester City’s Norwegian forward has claimed the award in back-to-back seasons after netting 35 goals in 2022-23 and 27 in 2023-24 – and stats experts from the Online Betting Guide (OLBG) claim he has a 57.0 per cent chance of winning it for a third straight year.
Haaland’s nearest rival is Liverpool’s Salah, who has been given just a 9.1 per cent chance of pipping him to the honour. He last won it in 2021-22, sharing the prize with Tottenham’s Son Heung-min.
Salah – who netted in Liverpool’s 2-1 pre-season friendly win over Arsenal this week – will be hoping to build on his goalscoring tally from last season, which saw him net 18 times in the Premier League.
But anyone battling to outscore Haaland will be faced with a tough task. Chelsea midfielder Cole Palmer was Haaland’s closest rival last season after scoring 22 for the Blues.
Behind Salah was Liverpool team-mate Darwin Nunez and Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins, both given a 6.7 per cent chance of being the leading scorer.
And despite Palmer’s electric form last season which saw him emerge as Chelsea’s talisman, he has only been given a 5.9 per cent chance – level with Newcastle’s Alexander Isak.
Erling Haaland has been given a 57.9 per cent chance of winning a third straight golden boot
Ivan Toney, who missed half of last season for Brentford due to a betting ban, rounds off the top five with a 5.3 per cent chance.
Dominic Solanke and Son – who scored 19 and 17 goals last season respectively – are both equally rated at 3.4 per cent by OLBG – while Man United’s best hopes lie with Rasmus Hojlund (2.4 per cent).
Arsenal duo Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka – as well as Chelsea’s Nicolas Jackson and Brighton’s Joao Pedro – have been given a 2 per cent rating.
Haaland managed to win the golden boot last season despite a host of injury problems – and his manager Pep Guardiola admitted he is managing the Norwegian’s minutes ahead of the Community Shield against Man United on August 10.
After substituting Haaland at half time against both AC Milan and Barcelona, the Spaniard said: “He’s got some niggles. He didn’t feel good. [It is] disturbing something, he doesn’t feel comfortable.
“Muscular niggles is not worth the risk. Sooner or later he has to take a step. To lose him for three weeks, that would be a problem as 60-70 per cent of the squad are on holiday.”
