Considering Jürgen Klopp was accused for so long of disrespecting the domestic cups, it’s remarkable how much importance has been attached to the two League Cup finals Liverpool has now reached in the last three seasons. On both occasions, it has been the start of a potential quadruple.
That four-trophy haul didn’t quite come to pass in 2022, although Liverpool did win the FA Cup as well, meaning Klopp has now won every major piece of silverware available to him at Anfield (unless you count the Europa League, an asterisk he will hope to remove in May). But this season has taken on even greater significance, as the manager looks to bow out on a high after announcing he would leave at the end of the campaign.
The League Cup still finds itself as the least valued of the four cups on offer, at least on paper. But try telling that to any of those who were at Wembley — Klopp himself hailed it as ‘easily’ his most special win, as the Liverpool Academy kids came to the forefront.
Caoimhín Kelleher is no longer one of them. He probably just about still qualified as one of the youngsters when his cup heroics last secured silverware against Chelsea at Wembley, but this time the likes of Jayden Danns, James McConnell and Bobby Clark made him look like a senior pro.
At 25, that’s exactly what he is. Many thought he would seek a move last summer in search of regular football — but it turns out he has been able to get exactly that at Liverpool.
The Europa League had already offered more chances than ever before, but injury to Alisson has now thrust Kelleher further into the spotlight. He will be the number one for a significant chunk of a run-in during which Liverpool is pursuing three more trophies.
After the final and then the FA Cup fifth round against Southampton, it would take a brave man to express any doubts about the Irishman. But prior to that, Alisson’s back-up has looked a little more shaky at times, and some may wonder if the absence of the world’s best goalkeeper might be the marginal difference that affects the destination of the title.
Even with a record number of appearances, though, Kelleher had still been very much in and out of the side until recently, unable to build up any rhythm. Klopp made that exact point lately, expressing his confidence that the regular game time will allow us to see the very best of him on a more consistent basis.
While nobody is expected to celebrate Alisson’s absence, it will be the first time we get to see Kelleher having a proper run of matches. In the past, analysis has been complicated by sample size issues.
That can wreak havoc with the numbers. In 2021/22, having made two Premier League appearances, Kelleher ranked eighth in the entire division for overperformance against post-shot expected goals (PSxG) per 90 minutes, marginally ahead of Alisson (all figures via FBref). In 2020/21, he was joint-second. In other words, during those handful of outings, he conceded far fewer per game than the average goalkeeper would have expected to concede when facing the same shots.
While small sample sizes can give players an unfair edge in the data, they can also go the other way. Kelleher has still had precious little chance to erase the 4-3 win against Fulham from his record this season — it was a bad day at the office which saw him ship 1.2 goals more than expected.
Given that Kelleher only has six lots of 90 minutes under his belt all season in the Premier League, he has only had a handful of further games to try and drive that average down. Yet prior to the Nottingham Forest game, he overperformed in all bar one of those outings, with the only ‘underperformance’ coming against Luton (he conceded one goal from 0.9 PSxG).
That’s still not been enough to lift Kelleher up to where he would want to be in the Premier League rankings in terms of PSxG+/- per 90 minutes, but it has significantly improved things. The 25-year-old is now only underperforming in the league to the tune of 0.10 ‘extra’ goals per match, placing him firmly in the middle of the road.
These are purely league figures, so they do not factor in the heroics in Kelleher’s two recent cup outings. Even so, among those with worse records are James Trafford, both of Brighton’s main goalkeepers, Mark Flekken, Đorđe Petrović of Chelsea and even David Raya (all figures correct as of before this weekend’s fixtures).
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta was portrayed as ruthless for casting Aaron Ramsdale aside during the summer in favor of Raya. Now firmly the second choice, Ramsdale has played five league games, costing Arteta 0.34 goals per 90 compared to the average keeper during those appearances.
Raya is doing slightly better, on 0.12 ‘extra’ goals conceded per game, but Kelleher outperforms them both, despite his best appearances having not come in the league. It’s quite remarkable, and backs up Klopp’s famous claim that he has the best number two in the world.
Even more importantly, Kelleher is trending firmly in the right direction. It’s hard to escape the fact that his early Europa League group stage record this season does not make for pretty reading, but in his two most recent matches in the competition, he conceded just twice from 3.6 PSxG, form that carried into the recent domestic cup outings.
That suggests Klopp was spot on about the need for rhythm. And it could hardly have come at a more important time, given the Alisson injury blow.
The long-term future for Kelleher remains up in the air. Klopp has always shown great faith in the goalkeeper, who has so far been happy to stay at Liverpool as second fiddle to Alisson, but a managerial change could be what finally pushes him to seek a first-choice spot somewhere. Only then will we really know how good he is. But for now, the signs are positive as he looks to play an unexpectedly big part in giving the German the send-off he deserves.