If statistics are meant to be a firm guide of what should happen in a game, then this afternoon’s FA Cup quarter-final at Old Trafford will only end one way.
Liverpool, chasing four trophies in Jurgen Klopp ’s final season, make the short trip east as overwhelming favourites to pile fresh misery on an inconsistent Manchester United. And the data from this season of contrasting fortunes points to a bombardment on Andre Onana’s goal.
Klopp’s side are on pace to set a record for shots in a Premier League season since such data was recorded by fbref.com a decade ago. They have already racked up 534 in 28 league games at an average of 19.07 – and across Europe’s big five leagues only Bayern Munich have registered more per 90 minutes.
Manchester City ’s class of 2019-20 recorded 735 attempts (at an average of 19.34) yet Liverpool will fancy their chances of eclipsing that record and there were further ominous signs in their brutal dismantling of Sparta Prague in the Europa League on Thursday night, sealing an 11-2 aggregate win.
By contrast United have faced more shots (464) than all but basement side Sheffield United (496) in the league so far this season. They have lacked consistency in selection and performances with Onana overcoming his tricky start to life at Old Trafford to save them on several occasions. The Cameroonian carries the second highest save percentage among top flight regulars (behind only West Ham ’s Alphonse Areola).
Their one league meeting, at Anfield, earlier this season may have finished scoreless – but Liverpool have trounced United 7-0, 4-0 and 5-0 in their past five meetings.
So the pattern of play should be obvious come kick off this afternoon – except this rivalry has long done funny things to teams and it would be dangerous to expect a foregone conclusion. If Erik ten Hag’s gameplan is obvious, it does not mean United cannot find a route to victory.
Despite being at home and this competition representing their only remaining chance of silverware, they should not feel as much pressure. After all, few on the outside expect them to win.
Liverpool thrashed United 7-0 at Anfield last season but Ten Hag’s team won at Old Trafford and their match earlier in this campaign finished scoreless.
Liverpool thrashed United 7-0 at Anfield last season but Ten Hag’s team won at Old Trafford and their match earlier in this campaign finished scoreless.
Finding a way to prey on Liverpool’s own expectations, which they have dealt with extremely well since Klopp’s bombshell decision in January, holds the key. And the probability of striker Rasmus Hojlund returning from injury to feature is a major boost.
“Some games are bigger than others and I think Manchester United against Liverpool is always a big game. I am looking forward to it,” Ten Hag said.
Yet the feeling remains that the only way United can progress is if they maximise their performance level while Liverpool fall short of their best.
