Three reasons why the 49ers will beat the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII.
Anyone who argued that the San Francisco 49ers beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII will understand the decision they made. They’re dealing with Patrick Mahomes.In 12 career games, Mahomes is 9-3. He went 10-1-1 against the spread in those games and headed to Allegiant Stadium after beating both the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens as road underdogs. Anyone who has played Mahomes once or twice this postseason is highly unlikely to play him a third time. They learned their lesson.
We recognize it. We get it. And maybe we’ll look weird on Monday morning, too. But we still can’t get rid of the 49ers advancing to Super Bowl LVIII. I mentioned three reasons for this.
1. The 49ers have more talent Christian McCaffrey and linebacker Fred Warner were two of three unanimous first-team All-Pro selections. San Francisco has five first-teamers in its lineup, including left tackle Trent Williams and outfielders Kyle Juszyk and George Kittle. That group does not include second-team receiver Brandon Ayuk and cornerback Charvarius Ward. It also doesn’t include San Francisco’s pass rushers like defensive player of the year Nick Bosa, who has two sacks in two playoff games after 10.5 in the regular season, or dual-threat star Deebo Samuel. General manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan have built the best roster in the league. Kansas City had three first-team selections, including guard Joe Tooney, defensive tackle Chris Jones and cornerback Trent McDuffie, listed as questionable. To be fair, that doesn’t include Mahomes or Travis Kelce, who averaged 87 yards and three scores on 7.7 receptions per game in the postseason. Mahomes has the ability to block a lot of things. But San Francisco has a talent advantage, especially on offense, where the 49ers rank first in Defensive Adjusted Value Above Average (DVOA) and maintain a significant lead over the second-place Miami Dolphins.
2. Kansas City’s weakness is San Francisco’s strengthThe best way to attack the boss is through a running game. Kansas City has really struggled this season, ranking 27th in DVOA. The Chiefs held the ball to 182 rushing yards and 4.7 rushing yards in the AFC Divisional Round. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, the 49ers had their best ground game of the season. McCaffrey led the NFL with 1,459 rushing yards and ranked first among players in yards per attempt (5.4). The strength of the Chiefs defense is Jones and the secondary. Kansas City is good when it comes to filling the field with defensive backs, including shutdown corners L’Jarius Sneed and McDuffie. This question arises. Can the lower protection body begin? 49 people can be very difficult. Ringer Sheil Kapadia noted that the 49ers had the best passing percentage in the NFL when they got the ball from 11 personnel (one run, one receiver). Their success can be attributed to the versatility of Juszczyk and Kittle. The Chiefs are 31st in scoring and have defended 11 deficits.Offensive lineman Shanahan is expected to look to take advantage of this matchup.
3. Kyle Shanahan and the Destiny Factor No, it’s not typical X’s and O’s reasoning, but there’s something to be said for it. Shanahan and the 49ers have long been one of the best teams in the league. San Francisco has reached the conference championship in four of the last five seasons and won two Super Bowls in that span, the other loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV.
San Francisco might have advanced to the Super Bowl last year if not for a series of injuries, including one that sidelined their quarterback in last year’s NFC Championship Game. It’s a minor thing, but I think the 49ers will do it this year.
