The Kansas City Chiefs have reached a level in the NFL that only the New England Patriots can reach. They are currently participating in the Asian Championships for the sixth time and are just one game away from the top 5. They will not play this game at home against the Baltimore Ravens. The Chiefs are currently slightly behind the spread by 4.5, and if that number stays or increases in favor of the Ravens, it would be another first in Patrick Mahomes’ career.
The Kansas City Chiefs are the biggest underdogs ever with Patrick Mahomes.Kansas City Chiefs Patrick MahomesJanuary 13, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) runs the ball past Miami Dolphins cornerback Carder Kohou (4) during the first half of the 2024 AFC Wild Card game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Patrick Mahomes has been extremely rare in his career so far, but next Sunday’s AFC Championship Game will be the biggest underdog of his career at 4.5 points. The only time Mahomes faced such a “wide” spread was against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 2 of 2018.
It is a good sign for the patriarchs when they win the game and start the season 5-0. In his career, Mahomes was generally performed very well as an abbreviation for spreads. Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS (90.9%) and 9-3 SU (75%) in his career (regular season and playoffs) as an underdog. Chiefs: 25-14-2 ATS (64.1%) and 21-20 SU (51.2%) under Andy Reid (regular season and playoffs) When Mahomes faces this spread, history says don’t bet against him.
There is a reason why the penetration rate is high. NFL Baltimore Ravens, Lamar Jackson, MVPJanuary 20, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson (8) runs the ball for a touchdown against Houston Texans’ Sheldon Rankins (98) during the fourth quarter of the 2024 AFC Divisional Round at M&T Bank Stadium.
The real reason the spread is higher for Mahomes in this game is because Mahomes plays primarily on the road. But what matters is who they play against. This Baltimore Ravens team has been historic on both sides of the ball. In particular, defensively, they were the best in the NFL.The Ravens defense looked historic in their first playoff game against the Houston Texans, who looked to be one of the best offenses in the league. It would be one of the most impressive wins of Mahome’s career and would continue to build a resume for the only quarterback to ever smell like Tom Brady’s goat.
