Just as Kentucky basketball is building serious momentum on the court, a troubling storyline is developing off of it.
The Wildcats still don’t have a single high school commitment in the 2026 class, and for months, many believed that 5-star wing Christian Collins would eventually change that. At one point, Kentucky appeared to be in firm control of the race. Now? That confidence is fading fast.
On Tuesday, On3’s Joe Tipton officially flipped his prediction for Collins from Kentucky to USC.
“USC is one school that has stayed consistent with Collins and was even thought of by many as the frontrunner before Kentucky gained ground,” Tipton wrote. “Now, Eric Musselman and the Trojans are once again in the driver’s seat and are quickly gaining momentum.”
In other words, the buzz has shifted — and not in Kentucky’s favor.
KSR recruiting insider Jacob Polacheck followed suit, also changing his pick from the Wildcats to the Trojans. When multiple respected analysts start aligning their predictions, it’s usually a sign that real movement is happening behind the scenes.
That would make this a significant loss for Mark Pope and his staff.
Collins is ranked as high as No. 3 overall in the 2026 class by Rivals. For a stretch, Kentucky wasn’t just in the mix — they were viewed as the heavy favorite. Some around recruiting circles even believed a commitment was inevitable, with NIL details being the final hurdle to clear.
Instead, USC has regained control.
The bigger concern? Kentucky’s 2026 class currently sits empty, and other top targets appear to be trending elsewhere. Tyran Stokes is widely believed to be leaning toward Kansas. Caleb Holt has momentum with Alabama. If those dominoes fall as expected, the Wildcats could realistically miss out on signing a single high school prospect in the class.
That would be a stunning development for a program built on elite recruiting.
Of course, this doesn’t mean all hope is lost. Mark Pope has shown he can maneuver aggressively in the transfer portal, and Kentucky’s roster retention will be just as important. Keeping key pieces like Collin Chandler, Malachi Moreno, and Kam Williams in Lexington could soften the blow if the high school route dries up.
Still, Collins flipping toward USC changes the temperature around Kentucky’s recruiting outlook.
The Wildcats are winning games right now — but the pressure to win recruiting battles is only heating up.
