Kentucky’s season has suddenly hit turbulence.
After dropping three straight games, Mark Pope’s Wildcats are searching for answers — and fast. Their next opportunity comes Tuesday night in Columbia, where they’ll face a struggling South Carolina team with hopes of stopping the skid before it spirals any further.
On paper, this is a game Kentucky should win. But as this season has shown, nothing comes easy in the SEC.
South Carolina sits near the bottom of the conference standings alongside LSU and Oklahoma. In fact, LSU currently holds last place — and Kentucky needed a miracle shot from Malachi Moreno just to escape Baton Rouge with a win earlier this season. That alone should serve as a warning: even the SEC’s lowest-ranked teams can be dangerous if overlooked.
The Gamecocks are led by veteran guard Meechie Johnson, who has consistently caused problems for Kentucky in the past. Johnson is putting together an impressive season, averaging 17.1 points, 4.3 assists, and 3.3 rebounds per game. If Kentucky doesn’t defend at a high level, he’s more than capable of taking over stretches of the game.
The Wildcats are coming off a heartbreaking 75-74 loss to Auburn — a team that entered the matchup on a five-game losing streak and played with clear desperation. Auburn fought for every possession and refused to fold, eventually stealing the win late.
Now, the question becomes: will Kentucky respond with that same urgency?
Unlike Auburn last weekend, South Carolina doesn’t have much left to play for this season. The crowd in Columbia may not provide a major boost either. That means the edge in desperation should belong to Kentucky — and Pope’s team must embrace that reality.
Some fans hesitate to label games as “must-win” in early February. But given the current trajectory, this one feels exactly like that. Another loss would intensify discussions about Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament chances and put even more pressure on the final stretch of the regular season.
So what do the numbers say?
KenPom Prediction
KenPom projects Kentucky to bounce back, predicting a 77-71 Wildcats victory in Columbia. The analytics suggest Kentucky’s efficiency on both ends should be enough to create separation.
ESPN Matchup Predictor
ESPN gives Kentucky a 75.6% chance to win, indicating strong confidence that the Wildcats will handle business on the road.
The models believe Kentucky will end the losing streak.
But analytics don’t defend Meechie Johnson. Analytics don’t limit turnovers — an issue that has plagued the Wildcats during this skid. And analytics won’t close out possessions in crunch time.
That responsibility falls squarely on Pope’s team.
If Kentucky plays with urgency, protects the basketball, and locks in defensively, the Wildcats should leave Columbia with a much-needed win. If not, the conversation surrounding this season could shift from “temporary slump” to something far more concerning.
Tuesday night may not define the season — but it could very well determine its direction.
