Kentucky men’s basketball coach Mark Pope emphasized the Wildcats’ commitment to winning and highlighted the importance of their upcoming game at South Carolina during the Saturday night postgame press conference, following UK’s narrow 75-74 loss at Auburn.
Even with three straight losses and one of the nation’s toughest remaining schedules ahead, Kentucky remains in solid shape for the NCAA Tournament. Concerns about missing March Madness have been overblown for a team that currently holds a 17-10 overall record and an 8-6 mark in the SEC — still widely regarded as the toughest conference in college basketball.
What most fans aren’t talking about, though, is a relatively new NCAA metric called Wins Above Bubble (WAB). This behind-the-scenes stat could have a bigger impact on Kentucky’s March Madness seeding than wins, losses, or the traditional NET rankings.
Introduced last year, WAB measures how a team performs against its schedule compared to the average NCAA Tournament bubble team. It has proven to predict seeding more accurately than NET. In a recent NCAA “mock selection process,” WAB rankings closely mirrored the committee’s top seeds — a trend confirmed when CBS revealed the top 18 teams for a special tournament preview show.
Kentucky currently sits safely in the tournament field under WAB. Before the Auburn game, UK was ranked 26th nationally in WAB, dropping just one spot to 27th after the loss — both rankings suggest a 7-seed. A win in Auburn could have moved UK to 24th, roughly equivalent to a 6-seed.
How WAB Works
WAB evaluates a team’s results relative to what an average bubble team would achieve. Each game earns a 0–1 score, with wins over strong opponents adding more points, and losses to underdogs deducting more.
Kentucky currently has a WAB score of 2.79, meaning the Wildcats have roughly 2.79 more projected wins than the average bubble team. A win at South Carolina could increase the score by 0.41 points, while a loss would drop it by roughly 0.6. Victories against Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Florida could give substantial boosts, potentially moving Kentucky closer to a 5-seed.
Unlike other metrics, WAB ignores margin of victory. This benefits Kentucky, as heavy losses to Gonzaga, Vanderbilt, Michigan State, and Alabama count the same as narrow defeats, helping preserve the Wildcats’ ranking.
The Bottom Line
Even with a tough finish, Kentucky is in a strong position to maintain or improve its NCAA Tournament seeding. One upset in the final stretch could give a positive WAB bump, while two could move the Wildcats into serious 5-seed territory. CBS bracketology already reflects this, keeping UK as a 6-seed despite the Auburn loss.
With WAB playing a major role in Selection Sunday decisions, Wildcats fans can remain optimistic as the regular season winds down. Otega Oweh, Jasper Johnson, and the rest of the roster will look to finish strong and improve their tournament standing in the games ahead.
Ben Roberts covers University of Kentucky men’s basketball for the Lexington Herald-Leader. A Franklin County native, he joined the Herald-Leader in 2006 and previously focused on UK recruiting coverage.
