Kentucky’s 86-78 home loss to Georgia earlier this week felt like the kind of defeat that could send a season spiraling — especially this late in February.
A loss at Rupp Arena. To a team the Wildcats were expected to beat. With a brutal stretch of games still ahead.
So how much damage did it actually do to Kentucky’s NCAA Tournament résumé?
Surprisingly, not much.
No Major Drop in Bracket Projections
Despite the disappointment, the latest round of bracketology updates shows Kentucky sitting almost exactly where it was before tipoff against Georgia.
ESPN’s updated projections still list the Wildcats as a 6 seed — unchanged from before the loss. In that scenario, Kentucky would face a First Four winner in the opening round, with a possible matchup against 3-seeded Texas Tech in the Round of 32.
Other national projections landed in a similar range:
CBS Sports: 7 seed
Bracketville: Top 7 seed
USA Today: 6 seed
BracketMatrix aggregate: Final 6 seed
In other words, the Georgia loss didn’t send Kentucky tumbling toward the bubble. It barely shifted the needle.
Even when ESPN moved the Wildcats from “lock” status to the slightly less secure “should be in” category, the underlying numbers still gave Kentucky a 94% chance of making the tournament field.
That’s not bubble territory. That’s breathing room.
The Bigger Concern: What’s Left
If there’s anxiety, it’s not because of what happened Tuesday — it’s because of what’s coming next.
According to ESPN’s BPI, Kentucky has the second-toughest remaining schedule in the country. The final five games include:
At Auburn
At South Carolina
Vanderbilt (home)
At Texas A&M
Florida (home finale)
Kentucky may be favored in only one of those matchups. The others range from toss-ups to significant challenges.
Still, the math remains favorable.
A single win down the stretch would likely keep the Wildcats safely in the field. A 2-3 finish would almost certainly remove any doubt.
It would take a complete collapse to put Kentucky squarely on the bubble.
Why Kentucky’s Résumé Still Holds Up
One metric the NCAA selection committee has emphasized is Wins Above Bubble (WAB) — a measure of how a team has performed compared to what an average bubble team would have done against the same schedule.
Unlike NET rankings, WAB does not factor in margin of victory. A blowout loss counts the same as a close defeat. It’s about overall résumé strength.
Entering the Auburn game, Kentucky ranked 26th nationally in WAB — a spot that aligns closely with a 7 seed.
With 37 at-large bids available, Kentucky currently sits comfortably within that group. The lowest at-large teams are being projected as 11 seeds, leaving plenty of cushion between the Wildcats and the cut line.
Not a Lock — But Not in Danger
Kentucky won’t be among the NCAA’s top-16 seed reveal, and there’s work left to do. But the Wildcats are far from sweating Selection Sunday.
An 0-7 finish to close the season would complicate things. Anything short of that likely keeps Kentucky in solid shape.
The Georgia loss hurt. It didn’t cripple.
As Mark Pope put it, this is “winning time.” The final stretch — conference play, the SEC Tournament, and March Madness — is what defines a team.
Kentucky’s tournament hopes remain intact.
Now the focus shifts from panic to performance — and how high the Wildcats can climb before March arrives.
