The curious case of Patrick Paul is one that could elicit nothing but laughter as soon as the fall.
Or it could go down as the first warning bell we should have listened to.
At this point, no one knows what’s closer to the truth. Not the ones sounding the alarm. Not Miami Dolphins general manager Chris Grier. And not coach Mike McDaniel.
The sample size is so painfully small today that anyone who says they know for certain is lying.
It was less than a year ago that the Dolphins used their second-round pick on Paul, an offensive tackle from Houston, with the expectation he would succeed left tackle Terron Armstead whenever Armstead retires.
Since that time might be now, the logical assumption is that Paul ascends to the throne on the left side, Austin Jackson returns from injury to hold down the right tackle spot, and Tua Tagovailoa lives happily ever after.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper wonders whether Patrick Paul is the answer at left tackle
And maybe that will happen. Although these past few days, some are casting doubt on the real-life version of “Succession” playing out in Miami Gardens.
When ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper first floated the idea of the Dolphins using their first-round pick, 13th overall, on a left tackle, it was easy to wonder if all that hair had gotten to his brain and he’d forgotten that Miami played that card in last year’s draft. Patrick Paul is one huge human being. Kinda hard to miss.
But on a conference call with reporters Wednesday, Kiper essentially doubled down on doubts when asked if the Dolphins should feel good about Paul starting at left tackle.
“Possibly,” Kiper said.
There are a lot of things teams want to think about when they think about their left tackle. Possibly being able to handle the league’s best pass rushers isn’t one of them. Either the guy can or he can’t.
“You’ve got to protect Tua,” Kiper said.
That’s not all. Agent Drew Rosenhaus, speaking on Miami’s WSVN-Channel 7, where he appears on Sunday nights, also has floated the idea that the Dolphins need a left tackle.
Picking at No. 13 virtually assures the Dolphins access to a premier offensive tackle, should they choose to go in that direction. But let’s be clear: Doing so could only be perceived as an admission that they overreached on Paul — not unless one of the three “tackles” is ticketed to move to guard.
There’s no such thing as a good time to waste a high draft pick, but this would be a horrible time, especially for those doing the selecting.
Patrick Paul has ample room to grow
But let’s catch our breath and first take into account some facts:
Patrick Paul is 6-feet-7 and 332 pounds, numbers that don’t do him justice. Standing next to him, you’d probably be more inclined to guess he’s 7-7. And if he claimed to be 7-7, you would nod in agreement to reduce any risk he might crush you like a grape.
Patrick Paul is only 23 years old. He can still remember what it was like to finally be able to order a beer. His NFL career? It consists of three — three! — starts out of the 17 games in which he has appeared. How many of us require three tries just to remember where we left our sunglasses?
Patrick Paul had the best mentor a rookie tackle could ask for in Armstead. And even if Armstead no longer is with the Dolphins in 2025, rest assured anytime Paul wants to reach out, Armstead will be happy to help.
Patrick Paul has Butch Barry as his line coach. Huge plus.
So why are people in a lather?
For what it’s worth, Paul’s standing on Pro Football Focus doesn’t help. The service rated Paul 78th out of 81 offensive tackles in 2024. He received a grade of 55.8 for pass protection and 41.0 for run blocking. If those numbers sound minuscule even if you’re unfamiliar with PFF’s grading system, it’s because they are. Think about how you’d feel if you saw them on your child’s next report card.
Look deeper, though. For the first half of the season, Paul’s grades hovered from the mid-50s to 60s. But when Paul was pressed into duty the final 1 1/2 weeks of the season, he was hit with his two lowest game grades: a 47.5 against the Browns and a 42.1 vs. the New York Jets. Of course, it didn’t help that the Browns have Myles Garrett and the Jets Quinnen Williams. Talk about a welcome to the NFL.
December also gave Paul an opportunity to start at Houston, one of his three starts (all losses). Combined, Paul received a 28.5 for run blocking against that rugged Texans front; a 26.6 for pass protection in the Cleveland game, allowing a sack and three pressures; and a 39.6 vs. the Jets in which he allowed zero sacks and four pressures.
The Dolphins’ most recent comments about Paul say they’re optimistic he is what they thought he was.
“Each week, he’s been able to keep building, getting better in pass protection and with his run fundamentals,” offensive coordinator Frank Smith said in January. “So it’s a guy who is really using his time to grow and we’re excited about him really short term and long term.”
Grier is, too.
“Adding Patrick Paul, we feel that he’s going to be a good player,” Grier said.
Anyone certain that Smith and Grier are mistaken might want to think back a few years, back to when everybody thought the Dolphins whiffed on another offensive tackle.
Funny, but you don’t hear many Austin Jackson critics now.
